Thursday, October 30, 2008

Doke the donk donk donk

This blog entry will change your life.

No, sorry, it won't, it's just the recording of some random stuff I want to record at this point.

Played a satellite for the Grosvenor Pot Limit thing in Walsall on Tuesday and ended up at the final table with Rob and Cat. Unfortunately, none of us managed to snag one of the three tickets on offer. My exit hand was beyond doubt the worst hand I've ever played. I'm too embarrassed to go into the details but let's just say I should have folded pre, bet the flop, folded the turn but instead I called, checked looking to raise, and made a pot committing call.

Also played a sat I'd qualified for GUKPT Grand final but never really got going.

Played the Irish Eyes sat for the Fitz winter festival last night and yoyoed up and down to short stack and back before going out.

Only good news on the sat from is I qualified for Sunday IO weekly final on Sunday.

Other than that, mainly been just grinding the online double up STTs. Finished my first batch of 50 $100s on Bruce and hit exactly the 60% number I normally get for a net profit of $800 incl. rb. Some mad variance within the batch though: after an amazing start (9 of the first 10), I hit a patch where I won only 5 of the next 18 (including 6 losses in a row) followed by a purple patch of 11 wins in a row (and 15 out of 16) before ended with 1 from 6 (losing the last 4). The plan now is to do another 50 to prove to myself I have an edge of 15% and then move up to the 200s.

Still playing them on Green Joker at the moment too and also running at exactly 60% (which translates to an ROI of about 15% with rakeback). I've also started playing low stakes super turbo HU STTs, both to improve my headsup in pushfest situations, and to see if I can develop a substantial enough edge to make it a worthwhile pursuit at higher levels. At the moment I'm not beating them by much: ROI of only 4% or so, but they're over so fast (typically in 2-5 minutes) that if I could maintain even a small edge at higher stakes it could translate into a decent hourly rate. Given that they're very bingoey, it may not be possible to have much more of an edge anyway.

On the running front, I feel ready to resume light training again so might go for a run tomorrow.

I'm currently doing a so called "well" on Boards so if there's any question you ever wanted to ask me like "Why are you such an arrogant ass?" (Don't know, think I was probably born that way) or "Do you agree that you're the biggest luckbox alive?" (Not sure. I'm a luckbox but there are bigger ones around I reckon), pop along to Doke is in the well.

Tuesday, October 28, 2008

IWF part 2 (Satisfaction guaranteed AND money back)

Played the 550 side event in CityWest yesterday and ended up 22nd for one of those money back cashes I seem to be specialising in of late. Very happy with my play overall though. It was a strange tournament in that I never really got going even though I cashed. I took a number of hits early on that had me down to half stack before I finally won a hand, last hand before the break, to double back up to starting. Never really got beyond that until I almost doubled up with a blind stealgone right against Mick McCloskey. I raised a rag ace from the cutoff, he called in the SB with apparently a pair, I flop trips, checked behind and called on the turn when he fired, and then he made a crying call when I value bet the river. Strange tournament like I say: basically I had to play short stack poker for almost the entire duration, and luckily that's one area of my game that has improved a lot lately. Despite cashing, I never go more than starting stack times 3, and was well under half the average stack for 90% of it.

Standard was much higher than in the main event (as is often the case) which meant I got to play with lots of very good players (including Micky Mc, Rob Sherwood, Paul Coyle (who improves immensely every time I see him and now has really great game), Mark Muldoon, Neil Channing, James Akenhead, Dave Masters). Mr. Masters in particular put on another sterling display as table captain and his trademark talking people into bad calls or bad shoves.

Overall, a very enjoyable weekend and thumbs up to Paddy Power for another success. There was a great atmosphere around the place and ran into some of my favourite characters on the scene. Also, well done to Nicky "The Deise icon" Power, Kevin Fitz, Pete Murphy and all who cashed in the main event. I've maintained that Pete is one of the best and most underrated players around since I played with him in Drogheda and we have very similar games so it's great to see him getting the results, two big FTs in as many weekends.

Monday, October 27, 2008

IWF

Perhaps I should have taken my many near misses to win a satellite ticket as an omen that this tourney was not meant to be. Never really got going and eventually ended up shoving AK from the cutoff into AA in the blinds. Good fun and well organised though, and not without value either despite the buyin. My table was a mix of very good and very atrocious players with almost nothing in between.

Was very happy with my play overall, I think I did the very best I could and survived as long as was possible given what was dealt to me (muck in the main) and made one very good call against a hyper aggro English pro wunderkind with bottom pair. I was basically only beating a bluff but managed to work out from the betting that it was either a bluff or a very weird 2 pair, and a bluff was most likely.

Spent dinner break with Big Mick G, Gary Clarke and Nonni (sp?), and had interesting chat. Lots of well wishers glad to see me still alive after my race.

Decided to skip today's rebuy sickness (spent the day grinding online instead) but will play tomorrow.

Friday, October 24, 2008

Sats and fuzzy maths

I played the online IWF sat last night and came close again, 13th, 9 tickets.

A weird hand with 18 left: I have just over average stack at this point, so I'm in reasonable enough shape and know a doubleup and I almost certainly snag a ticket. Blinds are 800/1500 and I have just over 20K. I pick up pocket Kings in the hijack and think this could be it.

Utg raises to 5000. I check the HUD and see this is the first hand he's played in 32 since he moved to the table and my gut reaction is uh oh, aces. It comes around to me, I agonise over a decision until the clock runs down and then fold.

Afterwards, I thought this was horribly nittish and a couple of others players agreed. Obviously in a normal tournament I snap shove, but satellites are different. After I busted out (shoving A6 from the SB into A10 in the BB) I wanted my kings back, but after going through the hand and the maths with the brother, it seems it's actually a correct fold, at least theoretically.

At the time, my fold was based on
(a) strong possibility that the guy has aces. It's at least 25% of his range and maybe as much as 35%
(b) I estimated my chances of a ticket at approximately 60% if I folded
(c) I figured if I shoved I was probably only getting called by aces, and since he covered me, 4 times out of 5 I'm out

I think his range here is Aces, kings, queens, ace king. But even if I broaden it to jacks, it turns out that the fold is correct under ICM.

Here's a summary of the math:
(1) My estimate of my equity (60%) at that point is pretty much spot on: when you do the math it turns out to be 60.3%
(2) My estimate that if I shove, get called, and win, I'd have 90% equity is also pretty close (actual figure is 90.8%)
(3) If I get called and lose, my equity drops to 0% obviously, since he covers me
(4) If I assume his range is JJ+, AK, then AA is 26% of his range. So 26% of the time, he calls with his Aces. Of this, I'll suck out about 5% of the time for an equity gain of 30%, and lose 60% the other 21% of the time. Overall loss of equity from this scenario is 11.1%
(5) If he has KK (just over 4% of the time), he probably calls and we chop the blinds for an equity increase of 5%. Since this only happens 4% of the time, this scenario is 0.2% +EV overall
(6) If he calls with JJ, QQ or AK, I win 76% of the time, lose 24%. This happens 70% of the time (assuming for simplicity he doesn't fold), so a 30% gain in equity happens 53% of the time (overall), and a 60% loss the other 17%. Overall gain in equity from this scenario is 5.7%
(7) If he folds, I gain 10% equity. So even if we assume he folds all his weaker hands, this represents an equity gain of 7% overall.

Since (4) minus (5) is greater than either (6) or (7), then it's a correct fold regardless of whether he folds or calls with hands weaker than KK. Folding is 3.9% better in overall EV terms if he folds all weaker hands, and 5.2% better if he calls.

Obviously in a normal tournament where the prize pool is weighted towards the big prizes, folding would be a huge mistake, but in a satellite at this point, it's theoretically correct.

Incidentally, I'm pretty sure my opponents call with A10 in my exit hand was a clear theoretical mistake although I haven't done the maths.

I was intending to play the super sat tonight but after talking it over with herself, she persuaded me it's best to give it a miss and just buy in directly if I'm in a state to play tomorrow. The foot swelling is coming down, they still won't fit in shoes, but another 24 hours might do the trick. The other factor is that even if I played the sat and won a ticket, I might be dog tired the next day and not at my best, so I'm buying in to a 500 plus tournament for the first time since Drogheda.

Thursday, October 23, 2008

Mosquitos and women

Both find me irresistible. Or at least I enjoyed telling people in Seoul so. While I'm reliably informed my appeal to the latter is entirely in my own imagination, there's no disputing my appeal to members of the Culicidae family. By the end of my time in Seoul, I was the most bitten human being on the planet, and mosquitos were setting out from North Koreafor a long trek south in search of the legendary among mosquitos sweet O'Kearney meat.

Congratulations to my international teammate Eoin Keith who smashed the Irish 24 hour record in a track race in Tooting at the weekend. Eoin's having an amazing year having already smashed the Wicklow Way record a few weeks ago. I was chatting with him yesterday and was interested to hear that he incorporated speed training into his routine this year after we discussed its merits at lengths in Drummondville last year and he thinks it made a big difference. I'm a firm believer in speed training, even when you're essentially training to run very long distances at a slow steady pace. I believe if you just train yourself with long slow distance, you gradually get slower and slower. Speed training is needed to jolt the system and increase your cruising speed. It also makes the metabolic processes of oxygen transport and fuel use more efficient, and speeds recovery, which is a big part of what we do as ultra runners.

Monday, October 20, 2008

Seoul destroying

138.5K, a pretty miserable effort by international standards that put me squarely in the bottom 15%. Obviously disapponted but feel I did my best, and the state I'm in this morning suggests there wasn't much more I could do. And at least I beat this guy.

I'll do a fuller report (yippee!) when I get home but for now I think there wereprobably a number of factors - food, conditions, mosquitos, my back, mental - but I think by far the biggest one was the surface (concrete and patterned bricks). First 5 hours were ok, did 11 laps per hour, then I started to fall off pace, and after 8 hours my legs seemed to go almost completely and my feet swelled up. Rest of race consisted of walking for 60-90 minutes, then taking a prolonged break on my backwith my feet up and stuck in a bag of ice to get the swelling down. I actually "quit" after 10 hours but after a couple hours as a helper, decided to walk on as much as I could as the swelling had come down. To keep myself motivated, I set myself a series of goals that were not particularly meaningful but I convinced myself otherwise: to get past 100K, to stay in the top 100, to pass Thomas Maguire's total, to get to 150 laps. Effectively my race was over after 9 hours though, but having run 80 km I walked another 58.5, which was pretty tortured. Not least because while I'm trained to run long distances, I'm not trained to walk them, and walking 58.5 km is as tough on me as your average person.

Thomas also struggled with the surface and after a good start encountered the same sort of "leg death" as me. It was probably more disappointing for him as on another surface he could have contended for Gold, but at least he did the sensible thing in time and pulled out before he damaged himself. Important as he's our main male hope in the World 100 K championships in Italy in 3 weeks.

Eddie ran a truly magnificent race to cover 205 km, close to a PB, and is a most deserving new National champion. With his small stature and very light build he didn't seem as affected by the surface as Thomas and me but nothing takes away from the fact that it was an immense run in very difficult circumstances by our most consistent performer.

Provisionally, the next main target for me is next year's 24 in Bergamo in May, with a possible interim target of the Anglo Celtic in late March. Although the two races are a bit too close for comfort so I might sit out the Anglo Celtic.

Friday, October 17, 2008

Random lifts

We're on the 12th floor. There are three lifts. They're uncoordinated. You could just press one down button but it could take forever for that lift to get there. So with the best will in the world, you invariably end up pressing the down button for all 3.

It still takes an age for the lift to get there.

When it does, you stop on the 11th floor. Then the 10th. Then the 9th and so on. Nobody actually gets on at any of these floors most of the time. Your lift is just stopping because someone on each floor also pressed all three buttons.

My back has improved a little but not a lot. Plan for today is to try a short run to see if it's one of these things that I won't feel once I loosen up, followed by rest for the rest of the day.

Thursday, October 16, 2008

Clouds

Eddie and Thomas came back from the course inspection with two rather disturbing bits of news: the running "track" turns out not to be a real running track but concrete painted to look like a running track, and was covered in what Eddie described as "black clouds of mosquitos".

Accordingly, we headed off today to get masks and repellent. The shortish walk to the Hyundai department store and back was enough to have my throat, chest and eyes burning from the smog. Saturday/Sunday's race could be very interesting indeed, all the more so because I seem to have done my back in. I got up this morning very stiff, and then after breakfast rather unwisely played a few points of table tennis with herself, one of which had me lurching low for a return followed by clutching a spot in my lower back. It's difficult to imagine I could run on it at the moment but hopefully it'll improve in the 40 hours or so between now and race start.

Wednesday, October 15, 2008

Korea blimey

Well, we got here. First reaction was: oh my God the smog! Asthma flared up just looking at it from the plane and by the time we'd been bussed in to the athlete's village my eyes and chest were burning.

Eddie and Thomas are both here already too looking fit and raring to go so fingers crossed for a big performance. It's a little different from last year when we had a full team of 5 and hopes of a team medal if three of us managed to have a very good day though. With just the bare 3 this year, it would be a miracle, but hopefully we can do ourselves proud at least. Thomas took the last 6 weeks off work to get himself into the best possible shape and if he gets the distance is a genuine medal hope. The air quality and weather are the big imponderables, but Thomas at least has local form, coming 6th in the World 100k's here two years ago.

First impressions of Seoul is that it's spectacularly ugly and chaotic. Street names don't seem to exist here much. The locals are all extremely friendly, although English isn't widely spoken or understood, leaving us to communicate through the international language of smiling and pointing at stuff.

Monday, October 13, 2008

Rounding up

Poker: played the Betdaq super satellite Friday night and was out late on day 1 in 14th. Never go many cards or big hands but kept afloat until I lost my stack in a sequence of four hands.

Hand 1: Kevin Farrelly reraises a rock all in with A7s, finds himself facing K's, and doesn't suck out, leaving him apparently crippled.

Hand 2: Folded to Kevin on button, he shoves, I'm BB with A8s, and after a long dwell I fold. It's over half my stack, but that's no excuse, it should be a pretty easy call as I think his range is quite close to any 2. Even if his range is tighter, like any ace, any pair, any two picture cards, I'm still 50% against that range getting 6 to 4, so it's a call. I hate making these calls with medium aces or low pairs but I have to start making them as it's a major leak in my game.

Hand 3: Folded to Kevin in cutoff, he shoves, I have A10s which is a much easier call (57% against his tightest likely shoving range). He has 3's and hits trips. I pick up a flush draw on the turn but miss. Now I'm crippled.

Hand 4: Troy raises utg, rock reraises, I have 10's on the button and can't afford to wait around and be anted out so I shove and they both call. Flop is K high, Troy shoves KQ, rock has aces, I miss, thank you and good night.

Saturday went in primarily to watch/support Cat who had delivered another top notch performance to final table. Myself and Rob had high hopes she'd get a ticket but despite playing brilliantly she bubbled in sickening fashion, shoving an ace from the SB into Troy's KK. Brilliant performance by the Girl Wonder of Irish poker though and it's only a matter of time before she gets a really big result. To underline her resilience, she marched straight over to the cash tables and played brilliantly there too. Meanwhile Rob and I had busted out of side event (ran AQ into Vera's QQ when short) and I spewed about 100 euro in the cash. Very few hands, and played two I did get quite awfully. I always tell myself not to play cash when deflated after a tournament so why do I do it?

Sunday played the IWF sat in the Fitz. Early highlight was Bob Battersby's exit hand. I raised his BB from cutoff with 6's. He called (never seen him fold a blind). Flop KQ6. Bob checks and since he always bets any pair or draw I'm pretty sure he's missed completely. Since he knows I'm a rock, he'll fold if I bet so I check instead. Turn's an 8 and he perks up, like he wants to bet but thinks better of it, so I think the 8 has hit him. Although he probably will call a bet here, I decide to show weakness and check again. River's an 8, Bob bets pot, I reraise by 3, Bob instashoves. Against a lot of players I don't like my 6's so much any more but against Bob it's a snap call and sure enough, he just have 85o.

Got up to 35K early therefore when average was 10K and was looking good, but lost a few races and then after making a great call with 3rd pair on turn got sucked out on river to a gutshot.

That left me short again but I worked back up to 40K when we got 5 handed. 2 tickets, and we'd just agreed to split 750 cash equally between 3rd, 4th and 5th, when the SB min raised me, I called with J10, he led at 1063 two clubs flop, any raise pot commits me so I shove, he instacalls so I know I've been trapped by an overpair. Not quite: 63o. LOL.

This morning I went to my sports physio/chiro for realignment and deep stretching. He says I'm better aligned and more flexible than ever. He actually managed to double me over, ankles behind neck, something I'd never have imagined possible when I started going to him and couldn't get past 90 degrees.

Flying out to Seoul tomorrow. Did my last speed session Saturday and longish run Sunday. Last run of any note tomorrow before flying out. Looking forward to meeting the lads again. The other two on the team this time are Thomas Maguire and Eddie Gallen. Thomas is the national 100K holder and highest ever Irish finisher at a major ultra world champs (6th at World 100Ks two years ago, also in Seoul), as well as winner of gruelling ultras in Africa (Namibia) and the North Pole. This is Thomas' first attempt at 24 hours and if he gets the distance he's a genuine medal contender.

Eddie's the most experienced 24 hour runner we have. Based in Spain, he's been operating at the top level there for over a decade and elevated himself to international class with a brilliant 13th at the European track championships last year.

I'm running a "Guess how far I run" contest at boards.ie which I'll be closing up some time tonight probably. Prize is 2% of me in my next major event. I initially thought the ultra running would just be a source of amusement/slagging at the poker table but the poker fraternity has surprised me by showing a lot of interest and support, so this is my small way of giving something back.

Friday, October 10, 2008

Mad props

I'm not really one for prop bets, which makes it all the more surprising that just over 5 months ago, at the end of April, I allowed myself to be goaded into a substantial one at ridiculous odds. Another player insisted that I wouldn't get another Hendon Mob database result within the next 6 months. I countered with the frankly ridiculous assertion that if I really put my mind to it, I could not only get a result in the next 6 months, but in each of the next 6 months. Challenged to put my money where my mouth was at the "generous" odds of 10 to 1, I wagered a whole grand.

Madness. Stupidity. But rewarded.

May was a doddle: I got my result early and in fact ended the month with three that made their way into poker's most famous DB.

June was more of a struggle but a second last table appearance in Tramore did the trick.

I expected July to be easy given the number of qualifying event I played in Vegas, but none of my cashes over there made the base des donneees. It was there an awful sweat that came down to one final possibility a few days before the month end in JP's mini festival main event in Blinkers. And it could hardly have started worse with me donking away 75% of my stack very first hand. However, I recovered to final table and another DB entry.

August was a doddle: I got my result at the main event of the GUKPT Luton and could relax for the month.

September was no problem either with a FT in the Fitz IPT on the first weekend allowing me to relax for the month. October had the potential to be sticky given the missing chunk in the middle for my race in Korea, but a cash in the €300 event in Killarney did the trick and sealed the deal.

Anyone want to give me 100 to 1 on keeping the run going for another 6 months?

In other news, played the Betdaq sat tonight in the SE with no joy. Never really got going before the pushfest, and that ended rather abruptly when I pushed 10's into Aces. Still planning to play tomorrow though.

Finally, my father Sean Ua Carnaigh has published another two books in Irish: "An Goban Saor", and "Misteir Lios an Chatha", both published by An Gum.

Wednesday, October 8, 2008

Chips passing in the night (Killarney trip report)

The train down was a veritable who's who of Dublin poker and we sat with Lloyd O'Farrell from Mallow to Killarney. Lloyd's an interesting well rounded guy who is knowledgeable on a lot of subjects beyond poker and we had a good chat about American politics.
Before the tournament, we hung around the excellent Player's Lounge for a while chatting with Rob, Cat, and Mark (just arrived from England).
Tourney started bang on time, great organisation as ever from Neill and Connie. My tournament came down to one cooler when I ran the nut full house into the BB's flopped quads. I didn't play the hand very well but to be honest it made no difference as I was never getting away. If I'd played it better, the chips would have gone in faster. Funnily enough, my gut was telling me to flat call the river so I might have got away in my early days when I was a much more cautious player going mainly on gut instinct.
That calamity left me with 3 BB's and with antes kicking in I didn't have many hands to wait before the inevitable push, which I lost.
Welcome to the Dave Masters show
After an almost sleepless night thanks to some Norn Irish gentlemen in the next room making noise until 7 AM, I was in 2 minds as to whether to even play the side event. My track record in side events is appalling: I've only ever cashed in one, I think, and that was a side event before a main event. After exiting a main, I find it hard to play my best game. So the choice was to play cash or the side.
In the end, the deciding factor was a prop bet I have on with an English guy that I'll talk about more at some future point.
I got a terrible seat draw: seat 9 at a table that included Dave Masters in seat 3, Fran Egan in seat 5, and Mick McEvoy in seat 7. The next few hours I sat there virtually card dead nursing a starting stack and watching what I can only describe as the Dave Masters Show. It was one of the best displays of power poker I've ever witnessed, and anyone who can't recognise Dave as one of the best tournament players in Ireland when he's in that kind of form just doesn't understand tournament poker in my view.
Dave was table captain more or less from the start. If it hadn't been him it would have been Fran who was unlucky to lose a few crucial races. While I'm quite happy to go to war with a bad LAG, or a good one if circumstances demand, I considered it more prudent to batten down the hatches and wait for hands.
Dave meanwhile raced to something like 120K at a time when the average was about 12K. Ironically I was staying afloat only because I was winning most of my pots against him, purely because I kept outflopping him. There was one other big stack by now at the table, a guy I've played a couple of times in the Clonsilla Inn, and Dave was doing his best to wind him up all the better to stack him. The first time he did this, Dave limped under the gun, the other guy stuck in a big scared raise as he tended to do with smallish pairs and raggy aces, I woke up with kings and shoved, and then to my horror Dave didn't instafold and I immediately thought "Oh crap, he's got aces". Sure enough, Dave calls, the other guy smells a rat and folds (A 10o as it turns out) and Dave says "Sorry Doke, I was trying to trap him" and flips over aces. When I turn over kings, Dave, ever the gentleman, asks the dealer to give me a king, which he duly does.
Things went from bad to worse for Dave when he managed to trap the other guy yet again into a horrible call with AJo when Dave had KK, but an ace flopped and Dave lost most of his stack. To his credit, he managed to get most of it back in jig time. I gather Dave is something of a controversial figure in Irish poker and I've seen how masterful he is at manipulating table dynamics and putting people on tilt, but I must say I like him immensely both as a person and a poker player. It's also intensely amusing to watch him tilt players with ease, and some of his one liners are pure genius, like when he complained about one ruling saying "must be country bumpkin rules".
Anyway, he continued to knock people out and the table got even harder when Rob arrived in the seat beside Dave, meaning I was now looking across and seeing not one but two of the finest tournament players in Ireland. Chris (Russh from Boards) arrived to make the table even tougher, so I was considerably relieved to be moved when the table broke.
I was moved to a table that included David McCarthy, a very good TAG from Waterford, who seemed even shorter stacked than me. DBC2007 from Boards arrived to deal and gave me the perfect hand to push with, AKs, which bought me some blinds, an early limper and antes, before I was moved again. A few more judicious pushes saw me double up without showing a card and surviving to day 2.
The day ended rather chaotically when a dealer appeared with bags (or rather envelopes) to do chip counts while the final hand was in progress. I was not involved in the final hand so I counted my chips out into stacks of 5's and 10's, revealing I had 40K, as verified by the dealer. I bagged (or enveloped) the chips, and signed the count sheet. One of the English guys complained that this was going on while a hand was still in progress.
After play ended, I talked to Rob and he told me he had 47K. That meant we were both chronically short with 5-6 big blinds so there was a strong danger that one or both of us were destined to bubble. He proposed a percentage swap, very generously since he had more chips than me at this point, which I instantly accepted. I think this was a good idea as it meant both of us could play the bubble with a healthy level of aggression rather than simply clinging on for the money. And obviously swapping percentages with, IMO, the finest all round NLH player in Ireland is always good business.
Sherlock Holmes and the Missing Chip
Next morning I got up and went down for breakfast with Mireille. There was a great atmophere in the place which was full of poker players stopping to chat. Afterwards, I strolled back to the tournament area to double check the start time was 2. I asked Toby, the TD, and he informed me it was actually 3. This confused me as I was certain I'd heard them announce 2 the previous night, but he told me it had been changed. On my way back to the room, I met Colette (Smurph) and Martin and they said they thought it was 2 and advised me to double check with Connie, thankfully, as he confirmed it was still 2.
That left enough time for a nice walk with Mireille to Killarney National Park and Muckross Abbey, covering a route that formed part of my 90 minute run the previous day. I got back just before 2, just in time to open my chip envelope. When I did, I discovered to my horror that there was a chip missing. I told the dealer and she called Toby over, but he abruptly dismissed the matter saying that players were responsible for bagging their own chips and that was that. This stunned me as the only other time I'd ever seen a discrepancy, at a GUKPT event, the player (not me) had their chip restored and I assumed, naively as it turns out, that this was standard.
Fuming from the loss of the chip and the summary dismissal of the appeal, I walked away from the table to clear my head. I met Fran Egan and Brian from GJP and they both advised me not to accept the ruling, so I went back and appealed directly to Neill. He went off to talk to Toby and came back apologetically saying there was nothing he could do. Still fuming, I briefly considered kicking up a fuss, or withdrawing under protest, but mindful of the fact that I'd swapped a percentage with Rob decided against it. In any case, Neill's more tactful manner made the pill a little less hard to swallow, so even though I was still fuming, I sat down to play.
The bubble burst much faster than I thought it would. I actually moved all in on the bubble, not realising it was the bubble. I was utg with just over 3 BB's, looked down at A8, looked up at the screen and saw there were still 3 players to go to the bubble, decided I couldn't wait any longer, and announced all in. What I didn't know is the screen was not up to date and we were in fact on the bubble. As it happened, this worked out to my advantage, because I got called by pocket 5's and won the race. I was still a little shocked though at the lack of a bubble announcement or going hand for hand.
Rob had survived too and in fact had doubled up to 75K. But by now the tournament was pretty much a crapshoot for almost everyone with average M less than 5, so it was simply a matter of deciding when to push. Rob got unlucky while I clung on thanks to a few more well timed pushes and a couple of double ups courtesy of another race and an AK v J10. Unfortunately, my gallop came to a halt when I ran AJs from the cutoff in the button's AQ and didn't improve. I was disappointed not to have gone farther of course, but at the end of the day couldn't really complain and was happy with the way I played. I finished 22nd for €800.
Overall, it was a great weekend and a really well run event, so Neill Kelly and Connie O'Sullivan deserve huge thanks and praise from all the players. It was a great occasion, but socially and pokerly, and it was great to meet and chat with so many fellow players.
After I got home I was still fuming somewhat over the missing chip so I started a thread on Boards to find out what the usual rule was, and what other players thought. Thank you to all who contributed there and especially to Neill who not only agreed that a change of policy was in the interest of players but very generously registered me for next year's €300 event by way of compensation for what happened. As I've said before on this blog, we don't know how lucky we are in this country to have the likes of Neill (and others like JP and Connie) organising top quality events. Also, notwithstanding my problems with Toby during the event, I understand that we're all human, and as an ex professional soccer referee know just how unrealistic the expectations we place in general on officials. We all make mistakes especially under stressful conditions and long working hours, and I'm reliably informed that Toby is generally a top class and well respected TD.
Last night I played the Westbury monthly tournament in Malahide and ended up chopping for €1500 with Joe O'Donnell. It was a pretty high quality final table overall as it also included Rob (who got very unlucky yet again) and Derek "The Clamper" (who was third).
The plan at this stage is to play the Fitz Winter festival satellite on Thursday and the Betdaq thing in the SE on Friday, as well as some more online grinding. That'll probably be it before I fly out to Korea for the World 24 Hour Championships. I've decided to run related "win a percentage of me" contest on Boards after all so watch this space.

Wednesday, October 1, 2008

Good players and the bad mistakes they make

In a desperate attempt to expand beyond whining about bad beats and the like, I've been thinking about the mistakes I notice good players make. Apart from the obvious tilt and bankroll related ones, here's a few I've observed:
(1) TAGs getting stubborn about their steals
Here's the scene. You're a good solid TAG playing a good solid TAG game in the middle portion of a tournament. As a good player, you know it's a good time to start exploiting your image so you widen your range considerably and start doing what you've seen the good LAGs doing: stealing a lot in late position.
You stick in your first raise with a hand you'd have instamucked till now.
The BB, a solid straightforward player, looks pained. He looks at his cards. He looks a little uncertain. Then he shrugs and announces "Raise".
What? First time you've raised his BB all tournament and he's reraising you? The bloody cheek. You're all in! He reluctantly calls with queens, and now your jack 9 isn't looking so hot.
I know of one very good player who has exitted more tournaments in this fashion than in any other. He seems to keep forgetting that his attempted steals are just that, attempted steals, and if he wants to include good LAG tricks into his armoury, he needs to do what a good LAG would do in this spot with anything other than a monster and fold already. Sometimes he complains "But I had Ace jack! That's near the top of my range at that point". Maybe, but does the BB know that? Your steal is based on the notion that he clearly doesn't, that you're still playing tight, and yet he still chooses to get involved and reraise. Your ace jack is muck, son. Filthy mucky muck.

(2) LAGs failing to recognise a TAG changing gears
My favourite kind of table is a bunch of nervous nits, one good LAG to my right successfully running over them, and me. Why? Because the LAG gradually bleeds chips from the nit stacks, and every so often makes a deposit with me. How? Because every second, third, fourth or fifth time he raises, depending on how urgent my need for a chip infusion, I'll reraise him with virtually any two. He'll hopefully have me down as one of the nits, and fold. If not, well, I have position, and if my 64o turns into a monster, he'll never believe it until showdown. It's amazing how often you can do before the LAG suddenly thinks "Hey.....wait a minute". Even the good LAGs tend to underestimate TAGs, in particular their ability to change gear in response to table dynamics, just as sometimes even good TAGs tend to underestimate the LAGs as luckbox maniacs, not recognising that when a good LAG gets into a big pot he generally has the goods. (On a related note, bad LAGs make a different type of common mistake against TAGs. They think the TAG will fold to almost any reraise "because he's a nit". These are the guys who will pay you off when you have Aces even though it's the first time you raised in several years).

(3) Over attachment to blinds
It's important to know when to defend your blinds. It can be good to do this early, as a kind of advance warning when it shouldn't cost too much if it goes wrong, and it's essential late, but too many people go out of the mid stages of tournaments reraising with a bag of spanners "because I thought he was at it"..

(4) Bluffing too much
Almost every Irish players bluffs way more than optimal frequency. I maintain this is so prevalent that calling station tendencies are plus EV in Ireland (ie, always calling if you beat a bluff), and bluffing is minus EV (because we all do it so much, someone will usually look you up).

(5) Playing way too many hands
Most good players start out very tight. This serves them well, but as they improve, they can get away with playing more hands. It's even plus EV in a lot of cases, like early in a tournament before the fish have lost their chips. But a lot of good players go too far and start playing way more hands than they can handle. Not only that, but they fail to adjust for their new table image. They go on expecting opponents to play against them the same way as when they were tighter.

OK, life update. My SNG career took a swing for the worse in the past few days. Part variance (some sick bad beats) but also part bad play I must admit after reviewing some hand histories. In particular, see (5) above. So I essentially took yesterday off and started afresh today, with immediate improved results.

I'm really really looking forward to Killarney. I see Ladbrokes have me at 150/1, which is a ridic price in a 780 field, but it's flattering nonetheless and gives me an added incentive of having something to live up to. It's not enough to be a good player as they say, you also have to play well. Luck obviously will play a decisive role as it does in any individual tournament, but I'm in the frame of mind to take advantage of fortune should it smile on me. I haven't felt this excited about a tournament since possibly Drogheda.

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